Wednesday, December 1, 2010

A brief review of my current holding + history holding

------------------------------------------ Consumer Sector -----------------------------------------------

Pac Andes

PAH is the mother company of China Fishery. While China Fishery's business is primarily in fishing, PAH is primarily focusing on fish processing.

The company is doing well and it is currently in the process of aggressive expanding and has a relatively high gearing.

I assume people eats more fish they get more money.

Elite KSB

KSB is a very typical defensive and dividend stock and its value has been gradually discovered by the market in the past 1-2 years evidenced by the fact that its stock price remains flat in the recent market correction.

Technically the daily trading volume is almost never exceeding 1m, and a typical full day volume can be as low as zero, which provides an opportunity to buy at huge discount, however with very low quantity. Fundamental wise, the company is one of the few slaughterhouse locally operating to provide chicken egg and Australian frozen pork. The business is deemed as stable and counter inflation, however, with some exposure to foreign exchange fluctuation (Singapore dollar versus Aussie) especially when the Aussie goes strong in the economic recovery. The company pays out dividend generously and consistently, which makes it a almost perfect dividend stock.

[I haven’t checked the latest report from KSB recently, so I am not sure whether the valuation is still cheap. More importantly, what is the yield rate now?]

------------------------------------------ Electronics Sector ----------------------------------------------

Miyoshi

This is another investment mistake. Miyoshi did not fall because of financial difficulty, however, their business deteriorated after I bought them. Another lesson: good company does not always run well each year.

Also, their weird huge foreign exchange loss is a myth to me. Kelvin Scully analyzed the stock upon invitation from his fellow blog followers: he paid company visit to the company and concluded it is not worthy to invest, and he also mention that the dividend yield is not attractive enough.

Broadway

The company is making servo motor for HDD industry. It is recovering very well with the HDD industry.

Hisaka

It is a small company making precision components serving semiconductor industry. It is now venturing into biomedical sector.

Juken Tech

The company is turning around the corner. It was focusing on traditional film camera, thus going to digital camera era, the business is turning weak.

Now the company has become a precision component provider (step motor) for automobile industry through continuous acquisition, including the motor arm of the Swatch group.

The company is a below 1b group company and thus we can only replying on half year report.

------------------------------------------ Property Sector -------------------------------------------------

Ying Li

This one has been a popular stock for 2009. I did not even take a look at the stock fundamental before vesting in this stock, and it can deemed as a blunt mistake. Luckily I sold it all before it dropped even further.

GLOBAL LOGISTIC PROP LIMITED & MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST

I got this two from IPO. Both are good logistic Reits backed by huge institutional buyers. I got 1 lot for each. I sold MIT and kept GLP since it is backed by Temasek. I am not especially sure about the decision. Should I vest more in GLP?

------------------------------------------ Manufacturing Sector ------------------------------------------

Eratat & ERATAT LIFESTYLE LTD EW130112

Eratat has been recommended in the forum for its strong growth, and during the time, there is also opposite voice that the company is reluctant to give dividend although it has large amount of cash in its balance book. The stock price rose substantially indeed after I bought it, however, the stock price dropped a lot after it announced it disappointment quarter performance.

Moral of the story: 1. be extra careful with s-chips. 2. We have to monitor the company performance regularly and take initiative to cut loss when the company earnings deteriorates. 3. I need to set a target price to cut loss.

Midas

In short, Midas is a good stock with stable growth. Major in special aluminum products serving rail trains in China. However, the market has already given fair P/E valuation to this stock. After I bought it at 86c, it goes side line for really long time. I sold the stock after nearly a year at around 1 dollar. The later rise is triggered by its dual listing in HK exchange. The peak is at 1.17. Afterwards, it goes back to sideline at around 1 dollar. During the time, I also received some dividend from this stock.

In conclusion, I think Midas is a good stock, but not the type of stock with great potential.

ChinaGaoxian

The market is giving very low P/E for this stock. On the balance sheet, the company has lots of cash. However, it is not giving dividend for last year. Recently, the shoots up significantly. However, I sold it too early.

I sold it when a major share holder sold half of his stake in the company. According to the IPO document, this share holder has vested in the company ever since the pre-IPO era. Thus, it might be normal for them to encash a portion of their investment.

Sinomem

I still consider this a good company and undervalued stock. Although it is operating mainly in China, the boss is NUS graduated Singaporean PHD from China Fujian. The company is still managed as a family business with substantial board members from the boss’s immediate family.

Kelvin Scully has given the fair value of the stock to be 0.8 to 1 dollar provided that the company has succeeded to escape from the S-Chip image and has managed to get more BTO projects.

------------------------------------------ Transportation Sector --------------------------------------------

PohTC

This is a good company giving generous dividend; however, the company performance is getting weak since last year. I received some dividend from this stock, however, I have to cut loss on this stock with small amount of loss.

------------------------------------------ Construction Sector -----------------------------------------------

OKP & OKP HOLDINGS LIMITED W130105

OKP is a good company and good stock. I bought the stock at 57c and sold half at 82.5c. I also received some bonus shares and subscribed to the bonus warrant, which is generously priced at 1c. I would think OKP is a good stock and its potential is initially spurred by the right issue and bonus issue, and the company’s subsequent very strong performance was able to hold the stock price at relatively stable high level. I bought 4 lots of warrant at 25c after I cleared all OKP stocks. Currently, I hold 7 lots of OKP warrant, and I am planning to hold it even longer as far as the fundamentals remain strong.

OKP also gives generous dividend, and that make me a big pity that I sold the stock and bought warrant, which cannot get dividend distribution.

Boustead

This stock is the choice of MusicWhiz, an active blogger who promotes value investing over years and achieved quite good result. Good company with long history.

I bought this stock at a really funny instance. I overheard some contract winning by Boustead and at the moment I got the news, I noticed that the stock has been moving up for consecutively two days with good volume, so I reckon the news is true and vested. The news turned out to be true and the price rose another few percents and I sold it. That is it.

Yongnam

Good company with consistent good performance. Yongnam is focusing on special steel construction. It has been recommended by shareinvestors as the top10 choice for year 2010. However, it seems like the company is lacking some theme to grow.

Hiap Seng

This is a good company and it is still cheap. The stock price has been sidelining for a year plus. The last quarter profit is not very encouraging and I am still holding it. The company is also paying good dividend.

Lum Chang

Undervalued stock. The company is giving good dividend; however, the company has issued too much stock rights to the company management, which are also the founder and majority stock holder the company. It is a bit unfair to the small shareholders.


------------------------------------------ Marine and shipping Sector ----------------------------------------

Swissco

I bought this one for purely technical reasons; during the time, the curve forms a typical triangle breakout, and somebody discovered it in the forum. However, not very soon after that, the company announced that it is going to be acquired by C&O for 89c when its spot price was only 85c. So I continue to hold it while the stock price side lines at around 88c. The deal is finally closed and almost a year has lapsed.

I guess I am not patient enough to get such zero-risk profit, well, almost zero-risk.

Rickmers

This is clearly an investment mistake for me, and it is the first time that I realized the paramount importance of gear level is very important amid the bad years. Rickmer is a well established shipping trust and it has veteran management and strong support from the main shareholders, however, the aggressive expansion plan has cost it deadly. While it struggled to negotiate the LTV (loan to valuation) with the lending banks, the auditor has given a rigorous warning of “may cast doubt on the [trust’s] ability to continue as a going concern”. On Aug 18th, 2009, the stock dropped 20% end of the day. The stock price remains under 40c in the next one year plus of period.

This mistake has led me to choose PST firmly over Rickmers and FSL, which has significantly better financial health and gearing level. Later, for the same reason, I vested in Courage Marine, which is bulk shipping company operating with a fleet of all 2nd hand ships.

CH Offshore

It is a good offshore service company. It owns a whole fleet of ships serving oil and gas industry. The market is giving very low P/E for this stock when I bought it at around 58c and 65c. However the fundamental of the stock was getting weak ever since the first half of year 2010, so did the stock price. CH Offshore is a typical stock with large step ladder curve, which means the stock will shoot up in 1-2 days and remain flat or going down for next half a year.

To this type of stock, the timing is very important, and you need to be very sure that the industry is going up and the company fundamental is going strong, then you can ‘umbush’ it in advance, and that is the only chance to survive with this type of stock. In short, it is a dangerous and cyclical stock, and you have to be careful. This might applies to offshore service industry as well.

CourageMa

I vested the stock at 18.5c, however, the stock is still running side line until today. The company is operating on all 2nd hand bulk carriers. The company is running with very low gearing ratio and paying a good dividend when it makes money. The company is doing significantly better as compared to last year. I will keep it until its value has been unlocked.

------------------------------------------ Commodity Sector ----------------------------------------

Olam

GMG

------------------------------------------ MICE Sector ----------------------------------------

Kingsmen

The company is doing really good for the last few years; business is expanding, and margin is high.

I anticipate that tourism and MICE will one of the pillar industry in Singapore, and Kingsmen will benefit from it.

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