Saturday, December 4, 2010

Updates On GMG Global and C&O Pharma

http://sgxstockpicker.blogspot.com/2010/12/updates-on-gmg-global-and-c-pharma.html

Updates On GMG Global and C&O Pharma

GMG Global recently announced that it would acquire slightly more that a majority stake in Thai rubber producer Teck Bee Hang for a nominal fee of USD 909. However, GMG Global will make out significant loans to Teck Bee Hang amounting to at least SGD62 million for the purpose of working capital as well as to finance outstanding debt. GMG Global says the move fits its expansion strategy and intends to turnaround the Thai rubber producer by 2011.

SGX Stockpicker Says...

GMG Global's acquisition of the loss making company makes good sense even if Teck Bee Hang is loss making. GMG Global needs access to the Thai market, which is the largest in the world. Although GMG Global has been trying to build its estate in Africa, the long gestation period does not fit with its controlling shareholders' objective of feeding the booming Chinese automobile company. GMG Global does have the financial muscle to revive the once largest rubber exporter in the world.


GMG Global: A Brief Analysis

http://sgxstockpicker.blogspot.com/2010/10/gmg-global-brief-analysis.html

From the website, GMG Global is a Singapore-based plantation group dedicated to long-term investments in Central, West Africa, and Asia.

GMG is an integrated producer of natural rubber engaged in the planting, growing, tapping, processing, marketing and exporting of natural rubber. The Group's emphasis is on producing premium rubber products for Europe, American and Asian markets.

GMG focuses on centrifuged latex and tyre-grade rubber; in addition to two supplementary products: block rubbers of latex and skim; "centrifuged latex grade rubber" used in gloves, condoms and adhesives industry and "tyre grade rubber" used in the manufacture of tyres (for cars, commercial trucks, machineries, etc).

In 2008, there was a shift in the shareholding structure of GMG with Sinochem International Corporation acquiring 51% of the GMG shareholding. Sinochem is publicly listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and comprises a diversified international group specializing in the trading, manufacturing and transportation of chemicals, plastics, and rubber and metallurgy products. In the field of rubber business, Sinochem is placed at the top in the PRC in terms of natural rubber sales.

Besides having its first processing facility in South Kalimantan (P.T. Bumi Jaya), GMG expanded further into Kalimantan with a 75% stake in a joint venture (PT GMG Sentosa) and completed takeover on 15 January 2010 of a processing facility in Pontianak, West Kalimantan, that has an annual production capability of 25,000 metric tons.

Recent Developments
There was a recent leadership change in the management in GMG Global. In July, GMG Global's Chairman Xian Ming, who is also from Sinochem International Corporation, was appointed as CEO, replacing Elson Ng. The latter is part of the GMG Global's original founding members and stays on as an advisor to the company. Taking over the position of Chairman was also another Sinochem International Corporation individual, Zhang Zhengen.
More recently in September, in response to a query to SGX over a sharp spike in trading activity, GMG said that was currently in discussions with certain parties to acquire a foreign company in Southeast Asia which is engaged in rubber production and trading. However, GMG said no agreement has been reached on the Proposed Acquisition, and there was no certainty as to whether such Proposed Acquisition will take place.

GMG also added that it was also in the process of embarking on a new rubber related project in Africa. To that end, it has since setup a JV company in Cameroon specifically for the development of natural rubber plantations.

Financial Results
GMG Global announced on 25 November the results for its third quarter ended 30 September 2010. For the full results, you can get it here . Just briefly, on a year-to-date basis, revenue for the first 9 months more than doubled on-year, with GMG recording a profit of $32m, compared to a net loss of $0.3m in 9M09.

Tonnage sold increased by 29% and average selling prices increased by 78% in line with the increase in turnover of 130%. For the nine months to 30 September 2010, GMG Global's Pontianiak subsidiary, PT GMG Sentosa contributed 14,274 tons for the first time to the Group’s total sales tonnages.


Historical Performance
I pulled the financial results from its annual reports. Please note that the right most bar is the annualized 9M10 results. EPS peaked in 2006, with the trough being 2009. If everything goes on smoothly, based wholly on the above chart, EPS for FY10 should be about 2007, which was $0.0109.

It is also interesting to note that during the last bull-run, GMG Global's EPS has fluctuated wildly. This is most likely due to the fact that GMG Global is affected too by harvest conditions. While commodity prices have overall surged, GMG Global's financial performance will also depend on the tonnage it can produce.There are other factors which affects GMG Global's performance and they can be found in its financial statements.

Price and PE Ratios
This chart took sometime to produce. Trailing PE refers to the Price divided previous full year's EPS. For example, last friday's closing price would be divided over FY09 earnings per share. For forward PE, I am working on the assumption that we know what GMG's EPS will be for the coming year. In this case, based on last friday's closing price, the forward PE will be calculated by dividing it over the annualized FY10 EPS. Do note that the price chart has been adjusted for a recent rights issue.

The most obvious observation is that GMG Global has been trading at PE ratios under 20 until 2009. I can only guess that with Sinochem's entry into the company with a strategic stake, it has in some sense, increased valuations.

Ignoring FY09, it can be seen that forward PE for FY10 (yet to be concluded) of 25 times, is close to the historical peak in FY04. I have yet to draw a conclusion, but readers can study the chart more to draw your won. To be updated.

cif5000 said...

good work!

November 1, 2010 11:05 PM
Singapore Stock Picker said...

cif5000, thank you very much for your comment. i hope everything is going on fine with your forum. been visiting it once in a while but i am not very good with navigating it.

have a great weekend

November 5, 2010 4:27 AM
cif5000 said...

I don't run a "forum" actually. In fact, I close it to new memberships and did some pruning, and I also accept no advertisement and don't pride over high viewership.

The things I wrote there are my own notes - a blog in substance - to achieve some peer reviews. It's easier for me to arrange things in that format.

BTW, where are the plantations of GMG, Malaysia? What percentage of national produce?

November 5, 2010 5:48 AM
Singapore Stock Picker said...

most of its plantations are in Cameroon and Ivory Coast, West Africa. Operations in SEA are confined to processing the rubber acquired from small holders.

from AR2009

"As a leading producer of high quality natural rubber, GMG focuses on centrifuged latex and tyre-grade rubber and two
supplementary products – block rubbers of latex and skim. With total annual production above 70,000 metric tons, it
accounts for approximately 60% and 12% of Cameroon’s and Cote d’Ivoire’s annual rubber exports, respectively. In
Cote d’Ivoire, it is the second largest buyer of smallholders’ rubber, a position it has developed over recent years. Its
Indonesian operation covers South Kalimantan and recently further expanded into West Kalimantan."

November 5, 2010 7:48 AM

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

A brief review of my current holding + history holding

------------------------------------------ Consumer Sector -----------------------------------------------

Pac Andes

PAH is the mother company of China Fishery. While China Fishery's business is primarily in fishing, PAH is primarily focusing on fish processing.

The company is doing well and it is currently in the process of aggressive expanding and has a relatively high gearing.

I assume people eats more fish they get more money.

Elite KSB

KSB is a very typical defensive and dividend stock and its value has been gradually discovered by the market in the past 1-2 years evidenced by the fact that its stock price remains flat in the recent market correction.

Technically the daily trading volume is almost never exceeding 1m, and a typical full day volume can be as low as zero, which provides an opportunity to buy at huge discount, however with very low quantity. Fundamental wise, the company is one of the few slaughterhouse locally operating to provide chicken egg and Australian frozen pork. The business is deemed as stable and counter inflation, however, with some exposure to foreign exchange fluctuation (Singapore dollar versus Aussie) especially when the Aussie goes strong in the economic recovery. The company pays out dividend generously and consistently, which makes it a almost perfect dividend stock.

[I haven’t checked the latest report from KSB recently, so I am not sure whether the valuation is still cheap. More importantly, what is the yield rate now?]

------------------------------------------ Electronics Sector ----------------------------------------------

Miyoshi

This is another investment mistake. Miyoshi did not fall because of financial difficulty, however, their business deteriorated after I bought them. Another lesson: good company does not always run well each year.

Also, their weird huge foreign exchange loss is a myth to me. Kelvin Scully analyzed the stock upon invitation from his fellow blog followers: he paid company visit to the company and concluded it is not worthy to invest, and he also mention that the dividend yield is not attractive enough.

Broadway

The company is making servo motor for HDD industry. It is recovering very well with the HDD industry.

Hisaka

It is a small company making precision components serving semiconductor industry. It is now venturing into biomedical sector.

Juken Tech

The company is turning around the corner. It was focusing on traditional film camera, thus going to digital camera era, the business is turning weak.

Now the company has become a precision component provider (step motor) for automobile industry through continuous acquisition, including the motor arm of the Swatch group.

The company is a below 1b group company and thus we can only replying on half year report.

------------------------------------------ Property Sector -------------------------------------------------

Ying Li

This one has been a popular stock for 2009. I did not even take a look at the stock fundamental before vesting in this stock, and it can deemed as a blunt mistake. Luckily I sold it all before it dropped even further.

GLOBAL LOGISTIC PROP LIMITED & MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST

I got this two from IPO. Both are good logistic Reits backed by huge institutional buyers. I got 1 lot for each. I sold MIT and kept GLP since it is backed by Temasek. I am not especially sure about the decision. Should I vest more in GLP?

------------------------------------------ Manufacturing Sector ------------------------------------------

Eratat & ERATAT LIFESTYLE LTD EW130112

Eratat has been recommended in the forum for its strong growth, and during the time, there is also opposite voice that the company is reluctant to give dividend although it has large amount of cash in its balance book. The stock price rose substantially indeed after I bought it, however, the stock price dropped a lot after it announced it disappointment quarter performance.

Moral of the story: 1. be extra careful with s-chips. 2. We have to monitor the company performance regularly and take initiative to cut loss when the company earnings deteriorates. 3. I need to set a target price to cut loss.

Midas

In short, Midas is a good stock with stable growth. Major in special aluminum products serving rail trains in China. However, the market has already given fair P/E valuation to this stock. After I bought it at 86c, it goes side line for really long time. I sold the stock after nearly a year at around 1 dollar. The later rise is triggered by its dual listing in HK exchange. The peak is at 1.17. Afterwards, it goes back to sideline at around 1 dollar. During the time, I also received some dividend from this stock.

In conclusion, I think Midas is a good stock, but not the type of stock with great potential.

ChinaGaoxian

The market is giving very low P/E for this stock. On the balance sheet, the company has lots of cash. However, it is not giving dividend for last year. Recently, the shoots up significantly. However, I sold it too early.

I sold it when a major share holder sold half of his stake in the company. According to the IPO document, this share holder has vested in the company ever since the pre-IPO era. Thus, it might be normal for them to encash a portion of their investment.

Sinomem

I still consider this a good company and undervalued stock. Although it is operating mainly in China, the boss is NUS graduated Singaporean PHD from China Fujian. The company is still managed as a family business with substantial board members from the boss’s immediate family.

Kelvin Scully has given the fair value of the stock to be 0.8 to 1 dollar provided that the company has succeeded to escape from the S-Chip image and has managed to get more BTO projects.

------------------------------------------ Transportation Sector --------------------------------------------

PohTC

This is a good company giving generous dividend; however, the company performance is getting weak since last year. I received some dividend from this stock, however, I have to cut loss on this stock with small amount of loss.

------------------------------------------ Construction Sector -----------------------------------------------

OKP & OKP HOLDINGS LIMITED W130105

OKP is a good company and good stock. I bought the stock at 57c and sold half at 82.5c. I also received some bonus shares and subscribed to the bonus warrant, which is generously priced at 1c. I would think OKP is a good stock and its potential is initially spurred by the right issue and bonus issue, and the company’s subsequent very strong performance was able to hold the stock price at relatively stable high level. I bought 4 lots of warrant at 25c after I cleared all OKP stocks. Currently, I hold 7 lots of OKP warrant, and I am planning to hold it even longer as far as the fundamentals remain strong.

OKP also gives generous dividend, and that make me a big pity that I sold the stock and bought warrant, which cannot get dividend distribution.

Boustead

This stock is the choice of MusicWhiz, an active blogger who promotes value investing over years and achieved quite good result. Good company with long history.

I bought this stock at a really funny instance. I overheard some contract winning by Boustead and at the moment I got the news, I noticed that the stock has been moving up for consecutively two days with good volume, so I reckon the news is true and vested. The news turned out to be true and the price rose another few percents and I sold it. That is it.

Yongnam

Good company with consistent good performance. Yongnam is focusing on special steel construction. It has been recommended by shareinvestors as the top10 choice for year 2010. However, it seems like the company is lacking some theme to grow.

Hiap Seng

This is a good company and it is still cheap. The stock price has been sidelining for a year plus. The last quarter profit is not very encouraging and I am still holding it. The company is also paying good dividend.

Lum Chang

Undervalued stock. The company is giving good dividend; however, the company has issued too much stock rights to the company management, which are also the founder and majority stock holder the company. It is a bit unfair to the small shareholders.


------------------------------------------ Marine and shipping Sector ----------------------------------------

Swissco

I bought this one for purely technical reasons; during the time, the curve forms a typical triangle breakout, and somebody discovered it in the forum. However, not very soon after that, the company announced that it is going to be acquired by C&O for 89c when its spot price was only 85c. So I continue to hold it while the stock price side lines at around 88c. The deal is finally closed and almost a year has lapsed.

I guess I am not patient enough to get such zero-risk profit, well, almost zero-risk.

Rickmers

This is clearly an investment mistake for me, and it is the first time that I realized the paramount importance of gear level is very important amid the bad years. Rickmer is a well established shipping trust and it has veteran management and strong support from the main shareholders, however, the aggressive expansion plan has cost it deadly. While it struggled to negotiate the LTV (loan to valuation) with the lending banks, the auditor has given a rigorous warning of “may cast doubt on the [trust’s] ability to continue as a going concern”. On Aug 18th, 2009, the stock dropped 20% end of the day. The stock price remains under 40c in the next one year plus of period.

This mistake has led me to choose PST firmly over Rickmers and FSL, which has significantly better financial health and gearing level. Later, for the same reason, I vested in Courage Marine, which is bulk shipping company operating with a fleet of all 2nd hand ships.

CH Offshore

It is a good offshore service company. It owns a whole fleet of ships serving oil and gas industry. The market is giving very low P/E for this stock when I bought it at around 58c and 65c. However the fundamental of the stock was getting weak ever since the first half of year 2010, so did the stock price. CH Offshore is a typical stock with large step ladder curve, which means the stock will shoot up in 1-2 days and remain flat or going down for next half a year.

To this type of stock, the timing is very important, and you need to be very sure that the industry is going up and the company fundamental is going strong, then you can ‘umbush’ it in advance, and that is the only chance to survive with this type of stock. In short, it is a dangerous and cyclical stock, and you have to be careful. This might applies to offshore service industry as well.

CourageMa

I vested the stock at 18.5c, however, the stock is still running side line until today. The company is operating on all 2nd hand bulk carriers. The company is running with very low gearing ratio and paying a good dividend when it makes money. The company is doing significantly better as compared to last year. I will keep it until its value has been unlocked.

------------------------------------------ Commodity Sector ----------------------------------------

Olam

GMG

------------------------------------------ MICE Sector ----------------------------------------

Kingsmen

The company is doing really good for the last few years; business is expanding, and margin is high.

I anticipate that tourism and MICE will one of the pillar industry in Singapore, and Kingsmen will benefit from it.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

my current stock holdings - Dec 1st, 2010

NameCostQuantityCapitalLast doneMkt valP/LP/L %
4Elite KSB0.2310002300.2752754519.57%
9Sinomem0.482200010,5500.47510,450-100-0.95%
11Hiap Seng0.69280005,5350.624,960-575-10.39%
12Lum Chang0.309140004,3200.2853,990-330-7.64%
15OKP W1301050.14770001,0300.322,2401,210117.48%
22CourageMa0.185300005,5500.185,400-150-2.70%
23EW1301120300000.039090∞%
24Pac Andes0.325200006,5000.3356,7002003.08%
25Juken Tech0.16500008,0000.157,500-500-6.25%
26GLP1.9610001,9602.222,22026013.27%
28Kingsmen0.6150009,0000.578,550-450-5%